Monday, September 16, 2019

Paulie Doesn't Know

Paul Sullivan is not, by any means, a bad sportswriter.  I don't tend to read a lot of his articles, because condescending cynicism isn't what I look for in sports journalism.

But I do catch some of his stuff and so I read his recent piece on Kris Bryant's first five years in a Cubs uniform compared to Ernie Banks.  The primary content is fine, but this frolic and detour is terrible:
“But it’s fun here," he continued. 
Actually, average MLB attendance was down this season to 28,212 per game entering Sunday, the lowest since 2003, when teams averaged 27,840 per game. So perhaps the home run barrage isn’t really what fans want to see. 
But that’s another subject for another day, and Bryant is not expected to keep tabs on attendance records.
Paulie is, of course, correct:  Kris Bryant should not be expected to keep tabs on attendance numbers.  But, actually, a writer with a computer and working internet access ought to do better.  Paulie's claim here is that fans are turning their backs on major league baseball because of a lack of interest in the all-or-nothing style of the current game.  And there's no question that this is an unprecedented, crazy year in terms of the long ball.  As of Sunday, nine of the thirty major league teams had set or tied franchise records this season for most team home runs in a single year (Twins; Yankees; Astros; Dodgers; A's; Cubs; Brewers; Padres; Braves).  Another three teams will almost certainly do so by the end of the season (Nationals; Mets; Reds).  And another four teams will have a decent shot at doing so (Red Sox; Diamondbacks; Pirates; and Indians).  Of these sixteen teams, ten saw their average attendance increase this year versus last season (Twins; Dodgers; A's; Brewers; Padres; Braves; Mets; Reds; Red Sox; Pirates).  Four of the remaining six have per game attendance averages that are only slightly below last season's (Cubs; Yankees; Diamondbacks; and Astros).  Only two saw double-digit percentage declines this season (Nationals; Pirates).

So what's a better, less snarky, explanation for attendance declines?  How about terrible baseball and teams that don't compete?  The most amazing thing about the Cubs home run barrage against the Pirates over the weekend wasn't the fact that Chicago hit almost as many home runs (14) as Pittsburgh scored runs overall in the series (15).  It's that the Pirates didn't hit a single home run over the weekend.  And while there are a lot of teams hitting the cover off the ball and obliterating the record books, a little less than half of the league is significantly below their franchise record levels.  Attendance declines have been concentrated with these teams, with just five of the fourteen seeing an increase in average game attendance this year compared to last year (White Sox; Cardinals; Rays; Angels; Phillies) with the only real significant increase seen in Philadelphia.  In contrast, attendance of games in Toronto, Seattle, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Detroit is way down this year.
In other words, fans seem to dig the long ball.
As of the end of games on Sunday, September 15, 2019:

Minnesota Twins -- Record High 287 2019 287 (24,489 vs. 28,413)
New York Yankees -- Record High 286 2019 286 (42,998 vs. 41,777)
Houston Astros -- Record High 262 2019 262 (36,796 vs. 34,904)
Los Angeles Dodgers -- Record High 261 2019 261 (47,042 vs. 49,013)
Oakland A’s -- Record High 244 2019 244 (19,427 vs. 20,262)
Chicago Cubs -- Record High 242 2019 242 (38,793 vs. 38,283)
Milwaukee Brewers -- Record High 232 2019 232 (35,195 vs. 35,892)
San Diego Padres -- Record High 209 2019 209 (26,837 vs. 29,617)
Atlanta Braves -- Record High 235 (2013) 2019 235 (31,552 vs. 32,705)

Washington Nationals -- Record High 215 (2017) 2019 213 (31,620 vs. 28,046)
New York Mets -- Record High 224 (2017) 2019 218 (28,164 vs. 31,046)
Cincinnati Reds -- Record High 222 (2005) 2019 216 (20,115 vs. 22,362)

Boston Red Sox -- Record High 238 (2003) 2019 228 (35,747 vs. 36,022)
Arizona Diamondbacks -- Record High 220 (2017) 2019 208 (27,687 vs. 26,189)
Pittsburgh Pirates -- Record High 171 (1999) 2019 159 (18,786 vs. 18,940)
Cleveland Indians -- Record High 221 (2000) 2019 208 (24,083 vs. 21,915)

Toronto Blue Jays -- Record High 257 (2010) 2019 223 (29,066 vs. 21,974)
Los Angeles Angels -- Record High 236 (2000) 2019 211 (37,286 vs. 37,329)
Philadelphia Phillies -- Record High 224 (2009) 2019 196 (27,318 vs. 33,927)
Tampa Bay Rays -- Record High 228 (2017) 2019 199 (14,258 vs. 14,589)
Seattle Mariners -- Record High 264 (1997) 2019 230 (28,388 vs. 22,419)
Kansas City Royals -- Record High 193 (2017) 2019 154 (20,556 vs. 18,543)
Colorado Rockies -- Record High 239 (1997) 2019 199 (37,233 vs. 36,976)
St. Louis Cardinals -- Record High 235 (2000) 2019 189 (42,019 vs. 42,868)
Texas Rangers -- Record High 260 (2005) 2019 205 (26,013 vs. 25,741)
Baltimore Orioles -- Record High 257 (1996) 2019 190 (20,053 vs. 16,587)
Chicago White Sox -- Record High 242 (2004) 2019 162 (20,110 vs. 21,667)
San Francisco Giants -- Record High 235 (2001) 2019 158 (38,965 vs. 33,391)
Miami Marlins -- Record High 208 (2008) 2019 128 (10,013 vs. 9,752)
Detroit Tigers -- Record High 225 (1987) 2019 139 (23,212 vs. 19,027)